DraftKings NHL DFS Tips πŸ’ Use Hockey BETTING Odds & NHL Schedule

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– We’re talking Vegas lines and what NHL games on the
schedule to target for DFS. It’s DraftKings Hockey 101
and we’re starting right now. (electronic music) What’s up guys? Welcome to another daily
fantasy sports video. If this is your first time and you want to become a profitable DFS player and get better at betting, start now by subscribing to the channel, but don’t forget to hit
that notification bell so you don’t miss anything along the way. If you’re already a Holkamaniac, you know exactly what time it is. Smash that like button
and we’ll get rolling. (thunder rumbling) – Hockey is still probably
the best GPP sport that there is. Joe and I have talked
about it countless times. If anyone used to follow us
on the Inside the Lab show, the GPP stuff for hockey
is just incredible because people are just so
low own no matter who they are on any given slate. You’re gonna get guys at 15-20% own that are the chalkiest plays on the slate. Where if you look at any other sport, those guys are gonna be +60-70% own. If you like GPPs and you like
spending very little time with creating lineups, once you get used to hockey, it’s a very simple lineup creation. – Today’s gonna be more
about kind of learning some of the basics with NHL. There is a very specific
things that I think some people are definitely doing wrong. Shout-out to everyone in the channel that’s been kind of
following along with NHL for quite some time. We do have a very loyal group
of NHL people in the Discord, so if you are in the Discord already be sure and check that out. A bunch of content is gonna
be going up on YouTube. All this educational type stuff is where that’s going to be. All the live stuff will be here. I want to dive into just kind of the real basics for Sean. You mentioned that ownership tends to be very spread out in NHL, so I wanna bring us over to
the Vegas lines in general. One of the first things that I think a lot of people are gonna kind of bring up when they start building
lineups is the Vegas page. Like you mentioned, ownership in NHL tends to be very spread out
regardless of the slate, so it kind of lends itself
in a completely different way to tournaments than something like NBA where ownership tends to
be extremely clustered. Talk a little bit about Vegas lines and how that impacts ownership, but I know we’ve talked
about it before too, I honestly think that night in, night out these best spots of the
night are, basically, under-owned relative
to what they should be. – In other sports, you use Vegas totals to determine whether a games going to be a blowout, who’s favored, who’s going to play, how
explosive the game’s gonna be. You do similar things with hockey. The only difference is in hockey you don’t really worry about a blowout. If a team’s up by four or five goals, you might see the stars
maybe limit themselves a minute or two compared to what they normally would be, but it’s not what it is in NBA or other sports where they might get completely removed from the game. You get to look at the Vegas page and you get to see which
teams are heavily favored. You get to see which
totals in games are high, so you an expect a higher,
explosive scoring game that’s gonna be uptempo. You can see a bunch of stuff on this page, and then what you do is you determine which lines you like for those teams, which spots you like the best, and there’s usually a
bunch of similar spots. You see tonight, there is about seven or eight spots that have
a team total implied between 3.4 and 4 goals. The difference in that is
only going to be 0.6 goals, so you’re not really
realizing tons difference between maybe the top
spot and the bottom spot which is why ownership ends
up being varied so highly. – Today is obviously a
massive slate as well. But more often than not, we do see a pretty decent
sized consistency spike in games where there are teams implied for 3.5 or more goals. We’ll get kind of into some of the studies that I’ve done at FantasyLabs. Definitely wanted to kind of highlight some of that stuff that’s, I guess, been kinda buried that I still think is pretty good information. We’ll go through some of that stuff when we talk about more of
the stats to go through, but the Vegas page is
where a lot of people are gonna start building their lineups. I always say in tournaments a lot of times it’s nice to kind
of go past this top tier, and really attack some of the teams that are just outside of that who might still be in really good spots but might get significantly
lower ownership. On another thing I think
doesn’t get talked about enough for NHL is really targeting
some of these games that start a bit later. Similarly to MLB, you’ll
get much lower ownership on some of these West Coast games as well. Something like tonight Edmonton is at home against
Chicago, 3.5 implied goals. You might get them at much lower ownership than someone that is starting at seven like the Washington Capitals at home against Vancouver. That’s stuff I’m kind of thinking about form an ownership perspective. Before I move on from this page, Sean, is that if we’re moved all the way down to kind of the bottom here, are you just completely Xing out some of these teams on the
road with lower totals? – Yeah, a lot of teams like that. Especially on a slate that is this big. You don’t really need to
look at teams that are poor. That said, there may be pieces on those teams that you want. You may not stack a full line whereas you might stack a full line for a team like Dallas. Maybe you’ll find one player
on a team like Anaheim that is way too cheap for what you’re gonna get out of them. And then you can plug them in as a one-off that’s not gonna be owned, so if they end up going off, you still get them pretty clean as well. (thunder rumbling) By the way guys, if you ever found value in any of my videos or live streams, one of the best ways to
support what I’m doing here for free is to throw me
the follow over on Twitter, but if you’re new to the community, I also do a ton content
exclusive to Instagram. If you take a few seconds and make sure you’re following
me over there as well, I’d really appreciate it. (thunder rumbling) A question in the chat
I think is a good one. Doozie, one of the NHL grinders we have, wants to know how valuable it is looking at individual lineup matches. I believe you mean line one
versus kind of the other team. I think the one thing that stands out to me is something like, if the team is in Boston, for example, there’s gonna be last change
for the Bruins at home, and for people who aren’t
familiar with hockey, last change, essentially, when a team lines up for a face-off, the home team always has the ability to make the last line change. If they really wanted
to match up Bergeron, their number one center, against the top line, say they’re playing Edmonton, they really want Bergeron
against Connor McDavid. Those are the situations where a team has a completely elite
defensive center and is at home. That’s something that I would
probably take into account but do you ever really look at the matchup type
stuff in that way, Sean? Or is that mostly how you’re
approaching it as well? – You can. Something Joe will tell you, one of my biggest attributes in DFS, is my ability to lineup construct and just sort of funnel in a ways. If I don’t think something
is super valuable, I’ll just sort of not look at it and not really care. I think it definitely
has some validity to it, so it’s not like it’s something that doesn’t impact things at all. However, it’s just not one
of the more impactful things that I would look at. Therefore, I wouldn’t
necessarily spend time on it because time that you have to look at things is going to be limited, so I’d rather use my time on other things. I used to be a bit more open. It depends if you have a team that has a lock down center like Bergeron, and lock down defensive pairing when Suter and Weber were on Nashville. There’s obviously still
some pairs like that, but you can look through
previous game logs. But the key is to look at the difference of where the game is because a situation where the game’s home a team might last change Bergeron on to a certain line. While when they’re away that might not be the matchup you get because certain team might try to move players away from them. Depending on where the game is it’s gonna impact that matchup, and you might get different matchups. In general, hockey is very fluid. Especially with line changes, teams will get players out
against different opponents. Even though you might look at a defensive rating for a team that might only be relevant for maybe 25 percentile of the game because teams are able
to move things around and you have power play time, you have penalty kill time, and things like that as well. – One of the reasons I
wanted to have you on the first place is because, I think, in not even just NHL, in a lot of sports, you’ve really helped me, personally, kind of sift through
what stuff really matters and what stuff doesn’t matter. We’ll go through some of these studies, and fell free to tell me I’m wrong, Sean. You never been scared to do that. (thunder rumbling) Just a reminder, if you’re looking to invest in yourself and take your game to that next level, make sure you’re taking advantage of the live streams over on Twitch. A lot of people don’t realize that if they have an Amazon Prime account, and a lot of people do these days, you automatically have access to a free Twitch Prime subscription. With that you get access
to my premium Discord chat as well as a bunch of
other subscriber only perks for various sports. You’re seriously doing
yourself a disservice if you’re not getting involved with the community at that level. Make sure you follow me
at twitch.tv/joeholka so you don’t miss when I go live. (thunder rumbling) The team ratings page, a
free page at FantasyLabs, but this is where we can actually kind of get an idea of where these teams are actually from a matchup perspective. But more importantly, for shots. What we really want in NHL is to stack up shot opportunities and this is where we’re
kinda getting an idea of which games are gonna
be the highest pace. Sean, talk a little about
the team ratings page, our Corsi for expectation is
something that we used a ton when we were at Labs, but anything else that you
want to touch on quickly here? – You look at the team rating page, and it indicates which
teams take a lot of shots, which teams give up a lot of shots. Goals in general are just high variance. In general, the more shots you take, the more goals you’re gonna score, or at least in general,
the more shots you take, the more fantasy points
you’re gonna put up because they’re shots. If you have a team that
takes a pile of shots against a team that
gives up a pile of shots, you could even add what you would expect for them on a given day. If a team has a Corsi
for that is just massive in terms of what their
more recent volume is over even the year, you can expect that
team’s gonna have the most sort of opportunities that
night to score in general. In general, if you look at that and you see against team that gives up a massive amount of shots, it’s an even better spot
than you would normally find. There are teams that are good that are uptempo teams
that skate up on that ice. One of those teams is Toronto. They give up a lot of shots even though they take a lot of shots. You have a matchup against Toronto, and let’s say Toronto is a
heavy favorite that night. It doesn’t necessarily mean the other team isn’t gonna chances as well. – It’s similarly to someone let Winnipeg. They give up a ton of shots, not a ton of goals. They’re fully willing to
kinda play up and down, play a high tempo game. The ones that I think that
are kind of interesting to look at at least. Colorado for example. They don’t give up a ton of shots, but they give up a ton of goals. These aren’t necessarily
situations I’m chasing. I’m not chasing efficiency in NHL. If we haven’t touched on it yet, the most important thing
is to stack up shots, block shots, chasing goals is a great way to lose money in NHL to
be completely honest. The difference between
just by sorting by goals against over the past month, Colorado has been giving
up a ton of goals, not a ton of shots, but someone like Anaheim, they’re getting up a
similar number of goals, but they’re also giving up
almost 10 more Corsi per game. I’d be much more interested in attacking a team like Anaheim than
a team like Colorado from that perspective. This Corsi for metric
basically takes into account the offensive side, so
teams that shoot a lot, a team like Colorado, Boston, your Sabers, Sean, shoot a lot. It’s also taking into
account the matchup as well. It’s a really good metric. If you use one column on this entire page, this Corsi for is pretty solid. The goals for is gonna mirror
Vegas lines pretty heavily, so I’m more or less looking at the tails. I want teams that are in
really good Corsi situations, but also I want to avoid these teams that might have a lower
Corsi for expectation. Just looking at this in particular, a couple teams that were
high up on the Vegas page. Let’s just talk about Winnipeg. 3.5 applied goals. They haven’t been taking
a ton of shots lately, but also they’re playing against San Jose. San Jose is a team that
limits a ton of shots, so on this 12 game slate, bottom five in Corsi
against over the past month. Pretty tough matchup
for a team like Winnipeg even though they have high-flying offense. Those are situations
that not necessarily have to be avoided but they
definitely have a lower floor. Anything else to add there, Sean? – That’s something to
definitely take a look at. When you talk about the goals against, and you look back through that, all the other teams that were giving up a lot of goals are… teams that are giving up a lot of shots. You look directly below them and those are all the teams that are giving up a lot of shots. What you expect is that number to sort of revert back to a
little bit more of a mean. You would expect the Colorado team to fall from that top team in goals against, and you’d expect them to be
more towards the bottom third of the list. Like Joe said, you want to attack teams that are giving up a lot of shots because that is probably going to be the more consistent team in terms of getting a goal. – When you’re looking to try and stack up a team, I’m
more apt to stack up a team that has high Vegas
implied total, of course, but you can find kind of under owned teams in this way as well that more or less are gonna be generating a
ton of shot opportunities. Like Sean said, if there’s
a spot where, maybe, a team is giving up a lot of shots, maybe not a ton of goals yet, that might be a situation
where it might regress back to the mean and they will be
giving up a lot more goals in the near future. That’s kind of how I’m using this page. I actually like to use this page before I even go to the Vegas page just so I’m not really blinded by what the Vegas lines are and I still have better idea
of the slate as a whole. (thunder rumbling) If you want to learn more about how to become a profitable
daily fantasy sports player and better, start now by
hitting the subscribe icon in the bottom right-hand corner so you don’t miss anything. Be on the lookout for all of my DFS courses for other sports. Of course, they’re all on
demand completely free. We’ll finish off the hockey course first, and I will see you guys next time.

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