Do NOT Draft Le’veon Bell 🏈 Fantasy Football BUST, AFC East 2019

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– My running back methodology
is telling me not to draft Le’Veon Bell in 2019 Fantasy Football. But, is he a bust? We’re going to talk about that and more and we’re starting right now. Well, make sure you click
that notification bell so you don’t miss anything along the way. If you found me on Instagram, now’s the time to smash that like button and we’ll get rolling. (air whooshing) The Steelers’ offensive line
was just such a strong unit in each of the last two seasons
that we saw Le’Veon Bell. Of course Bell sat out the
entire season last year, due to a contract dispute
with the Steelers. But in 2016, their adjusted line yards, 3rd in the NFL per football outsiders. 2017, 7th in the NFL
per football outsiders. That’s in the 82nd percentile
roughly both seasons dating back to the year 2000. So well above the average
offensive line play in front of Le’Veon. You could say it was very strong, and if we jump into his
rushing expectation charts over those last two seasons, let’s talk about those numbers before we dive into what we think he’s going to do for the New York Jets. Both sample size charts
are nearly identical in 2016 and 2017 with the Steelers. The majority of his rush
attempts came through the middle and you saw roughly 90% of his targets shorter than four air yards down field. In 2016, Bell was an absolute rockstar in rushing expectation. He ranked in the 94th percentile through his most frequent rushing lane, and the only lane he was
slightly below expectation was to the left and that was a massive
63.6% expected success rate, which he almost even hit. And through the air, he rolled that over into some elite efficiency that came in the 92nd and 64th percent in each of his most
frequent target ranges. This is pretty similar to what a stud looks
like in my methodology. You can definitely check
out Christian McCaffrey 2018 from one of the videos earlier this week, but this is a lead guys. And now if we move on
to 2017 Le’Veon Bell, the last time we saw him in the NFL, again very similar offensive
line skill in front of him in both of these seasons. His receiving game numbers
are also nearly identical, so that’s definitely positive. From there, however, Bell
saw a massive drop off in pretty much every rushing
lane between the tackles from an efficiency perspective. This may be a little
bit easier to quantify by comparing chart number
three from 2016 to 2017, but this is real guys, and it’s not good. By the way guys, if you ever found value in any of my videos or live shootings, one of the best ways to
support what I’m doing here for free is to throw me
the follow over on Twitter. And if you’re new to the community, I also do a ton of content
only exclusive to Instagram, so if you give me a follow over there when you get a quick minute, I’d really appreciate it. Chart number three 2016, Le’Veon
Bell was an absolute stud. One of the best seasons I’ve ever charted in rushing expectation history. That much is undeniable. That said, the drop off from
the 89th to 34th percentile overall is concerning in
a similar environment. Success rate of 56.4% in 2016 to just a middling 47.8 in just one year. It’s not falling off a cliff, but it is a pretty huge drop. Essentially in 2017, he
basically got what was expected, no more, no less. That worries me a little bit in his transition to the Jets and I’ll expand a little bit
more on that in a minute. But his receiving game numbers
actually improved slightly in 2017, so that’s great to see. But his success rate before any adjustment was very similar. Still nice to see him maintain that through the air, though. It’s definitely important
in Fantasy Football. Digging a little bit deeper, Bell was stopped at the line of scrimmage much more frequently in 2017, and he broke much fewer
big plays on the ground as well, dropping from the
70th to 32nd percentile in second level yards per attempt. You could almost say his
receiving game was the same, but when you look at
it a little bit closer, it’s evident Bell saw
a significant drop off in yardage after the catch per reception as well in 2017. Look guys, Le’Veon is still Le’Veon. His time behind the line of
scrimmage 96th percentile or better his entire career
that I’ve charted him. The Pittsburgh offensive
line allowed for this type of style to work, but what’s gonna happen
this year with the Jets is his drop off from 2016 to 2017, any clues of what might be coming. As we see this, obviously
we didn’t see him at all last year, but it still has
me a little bit worried. The reasons for the concerns
is the New York Jets offensive line finished dead last in adjusted line yards last season, so no one on this line cracked the top 50 for offensive linemen
per PFF in pass blocking, pro football focus or even the top ten in run blocking. The lone bright spot is
probably Kelechi Osemele in that left guard, a trade
that could help things turn around. If (indistinct) return to that 2017 form, sure that new offensive line coach, Frank Pollack, should get things moving in the right direction at least, but there’s really no comparison from an environmental perspective. How much worse this spot is on paper for Le’Veon Bell than he
is used to in Pittsburgh. And we’ve never really
seen a guy like this with his kind of patient
running style behind a poor offensive line situation, where he’s gonna have a
lot less time by default. So, will it translate, or
is this just going to be an epic disaster from an
efficiency standpoint. So for 2019 in Fantasy Football and DFS, tie a bow on his outlook. He’ll be playing behind a
much lesser offensive line with a much worse quarterback and certainly a worse offense. So I’m struggling to see the true upside in kind of this low-scoring environment. It doesn’t get a lot worse than Adam Gase offensive as they run plays
at a painfully slow pace, lack overall scoring frequently, and just Bell, he feels
safe because of the touches that he’ll get, but I
think he lacks the upside that you want from a
high first-round pick. I wouldn’t draft him. (lightning) If you want to learn more
about rushing expectation 2019, so you can dominate your
Fantasy Football draft, start now by hitting the subscribe icon in the bottom right-hand corner so you don’t miss anything. I have a ton of DFS courses
on demand here as well, so be sure and check those out. Thank you so much for watching. I’ll see you guys next time.

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